Aqueduct Selections for November 18th, 2021

Aqueduct Selections for November 18th, 2021

Sunday's card provided a few opportunities for winning Pick 3 Tickets.  I played an Early Pick 3 Ticket and went hiking, First, I spread in race 1 and added the Hening's horse 4 Top Of The Mint in race 2 and was alive to Maker's Jarreau in Race 3 for $619.00.  I knew Abaan was the speed and likely the horse to beat, but chose to single.  As I returned to my car, I was able to see Abaan win on the front end like most horses did that day.  Jarreau ran second but never threatened the winner.  I decided to play another Pick 3 in races 4,5, and 6.  Using Hezastonecoldfox with Foxtail, and Swinton - the controlling speed.  I also decided to spread, so no skinny ticket, but the Pick 3 returned $380.00 on a $24.00 bet,

Races 4,5, and 6 at Aqueduct on 11.14,21 Not a Skinny Pick 3, one with an excellent ROI

While speed and inside position prevailed on dirt and turf at Aqueduct for opening weekend, the rails have been moved out so keep that in mind while handicapping this weekend's races. Below are the Aqueduct Selections for November 18th, 2021.

The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race.  “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value.  The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.


1 9 2,4,6 1,5
2 8.11 1,4 8
3 7 2,5,6 4
4 4,5,7
5 7,11 2,4
6 1,3,6
7 5,11 6,7,8 3,4
8 2,4 5,6,12 7
9 9 4 5,6


The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout.  The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.


The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5

2,4,5,9 W W 5,7 W 4,7 W 2,7 = $64.00

You can single the 2 in last leg to make it a true skinny Ticket!


Let's keep the opener simple by using the Brown horses with Pletcher's. 4 Balthus (IRE) and 6 Conglomerate with TAP's 9 Conquer The World who ran well routing on debut.


Maker's 11 Polka Prince draws Irad and goes out for Three Diamonds who had an excellent Saratoga meet;  Love to see Pletcher teaming up with Saez on 8 Your Mission.  I'll also play the two Curlin horses (1) Cox's Convertible Freeze and  (4) Mott's Curlin's Wisdom.


7 Nicky The Vest will be a short price but was running well here last year - tough to take with the lay-off.  Rice's horses are interesting Durkin's Call won two races back with Lezcano in the saddle and he returns  and she has J Ortiz on  6 Prince of Pharoahs moving turf to dirt -- good training move for her. 4 Thorny Tale just needs to repeat last out effort to win -- Ness and Silvera ship in from Bensalem. However, Ness does not win at the same rate on the NYRA circuit as he does on the mid-level Mid Atlantic tracks  -shows only 1 recent win.


4 Western Advantage adding lasix and going third time out for Weaver with Franco in the saddle while 7 Gotanda, named for an up and coming district in Tokyo,  is a last out winner for the Joe Sharp and Dylan Davis connection.  Sidd Finch, named for fictitious Met pitcher who could throw 120 mph,  is the other Weaver entry.


Who can argue with Clement's 11 New Ginya and Brown 7 Russiarussiarussia on the Turf.  Throw in the California Chrome horses: Dutrow's 2 Saratoga Chrome who won abut was DQ'd a month ago and finished second after a late rally and Abreu's 4 Arisaema.


Atras horse 7 Saratoga Beauty , along with the 1 Gentle Annie and the 3 Awesome Indra


Five horses show wins over the Aqueduct turf:  1 Alphalfa, 5 Dancing Buck, 8 Valmont, 9 On The Couch, and 11 Outrageous Bet. Of these horses, 5 Dancing Buck is ready to win for Nevin and Carmouche and 11 Outrageous Bet picks up Irad.  I'll be cheering for 8 Valmont because I like rooting for Samuel.  If these horses can beat the Maker mounts -- prices will be square.


4 Lord Flintshire reunites with winning rider J Ortiz.  Trainer Joan Milne shows up with bombers from time to time on the circuit and 2 Lady Fatima fits the bill.  1 Mr. Kringle can improve and owns a win over the Big A turf -- something no other horse in the race can claim.


In the last race, we will be spreading, 9 Juggler for Breen, $ Sensibleconclusion with Saez in the saddle, Dutrow's Bointheback, and 6 Workingman's Dude whos shows speed and may run out to the lead and not  look back -- 1 Veintecuatro was a horse a needed to complete a horizontal wager and may win if I do not include -- call it the spite angle.



Aqueduct Results and Win Percentage:

17 winners out of 28 races = 60%

Follow me on Twitter:  @SkinnyTicket