Below are the selections for the graded stakes races at Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs. While there are some interesting plays on the earlier card - pay attention to local trainers because they usually spring an upset at a price -- we will focus on the horses that are consistently running at the graded stakes level of competition.
Loyalty:
As seen in the featured image, Echo Zulu was my play of the day on opening day of the Saratoga meet. I will see if she can continue to win and stay undefeated in the Kentucky Oaks while getting her trainer a much needed win in Kentucky.
Trends:
Trainer Steve Asmussen is 0/72 in Kentucky and 0/14 at Churchill Downs since last November-- tread carefully with his starters. However, a closer look at his starters on Friday reveals Jilted Bride is 4/4 in the money with 1 win; Pauline's Pearl is 0/1 at CD with lone loss in last year's Oaks; Max Player is 0/1 at CD with lone loss in Derby; Wickid Halo is 0/1, and Cowan and Echo Zulu have not raced at CD with the latter holding a 5/5 undefeated record.
The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race. “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value. The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.
| RACE | A HORSES | B HORSES | C HORSES |
| 5 | 1,8 | 7,9 | 2,3 |
| 6 | 2,6 | 1,5 | |
| 7 | 5 | 6 | 1.2.7 |
| 8 | 3,5,8 | 4,7 | 2 |
| 9 | 3,6,8 | 9,10 | |
| 10 | 8,10 | 11,13 | |
| 11 | 1,4 | 2,7 | 10 |
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The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout. The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.
The Skinny Ticket for The All Graded Stakes Pick 5 (Races 7-11)
5,6 W3,5 W 3,6,8,9,10 W 10,13 W1,4,7 = $60.00
RACE 5
WIN BET: 8 Bleeker Street the two Chad Brown entries seem to be most likely winners
NO CHALK: 1 Fluffy Socks
RACE 6
WIN BET: 2 Shedaresthedevil Could be a start to a big weekend for local trainer Brad Cox, but I am concerned with the speed in this race compromising her chances, but she is 5/5 at CD.
NO CHALK: 1 Pauline's Pearl Asmussen could have a big weekend and if a speed duel happens she will be running them down the stretch.
RACE 7
WIN BET: 5 Olympiad Mott trainee is consistent and enters in great form
NO CHALK: 6 Fulsome Brad Cox with Geroux
RACE 8
WIN BET: 3 McKulick, 5 Dolce Zel, and 8 Spicer are sent out by Chad Brown and all three are likely winners
NO CHALK: The longer half of the Chad Brown horses above
RACE 9
WIN BET: 8 Matareya but will have to be the best of the speed and hold on down the stretch.
NO CHALK: 6 Gerrymander closing speed for Chad Brown
RACE 10
WIN BET: 10 Arrest Me Red -- hard to leave out Irad with Ward in a turf sprint.
NO CHALK: 13 Whatmakessammyrun closing down the lane with Johnny V.
RACE 11
WIN BET: 4 Nest Pletcher has an improving horse who has done nothing wrong.
NO CHALK: 1 Secret Oath D Wayne Lucas had this one running against the boys in last -- maybe a bad break away from running on Saturday instead of here.
