Free Selections for Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs 5/7/2022

Went 4/5 in the all Graded Stakes Pick 5 -- missed New Year's Eve. Every one of the winners in the 7 Graded Stakes races except New Year's Eve was either my  WIN BET or my NO CHALK Selection.  Remember I only make two picks for each race and we were dead on, but we put too much faith in the the Brown horses to win in Race 8 when they ran Place and Show.

4 out of 5 in All Graded Stakes Pick 5

We are alive with a 2 dollar Oaks / Derby Double:

Kentucky Derby Day Selections

The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race.  “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value.  The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.


5 7,8 5,6 4
6 2,4,7 12 9
7 1,5 10,11 9
8 2,4 5,6 7
9 7 6,9 4
10 1,3 5,7
11 4,6,8 10 1,3
12 6,8 1,3,7,12 10


The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout.  The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.


The Skinny Ticket All Graded Stakes Pick 5 (Races 8-12)

2,5,6 W 6,7,9 W 3,5 W4,6,8 W6,8 =$54.00


WIN BET: 8 Speak Of The Devil

NO CHALK: 1 In Italian


WIN BET: 2 Shared Sense could be a lot of Brad Cox and Geroux

NO CHALK: 9 South Bend Rosario rides for Mott


WIN BET: 1 Major General 

NO CHALK: 5 Jack Christopher would have been in big race if not for some injury -- Brown excellent returning off layoff.


WIN BET 2 Just One Time Brad Cox and Geroux could be racking up winners

NO CHALK 5 Obligatory Mott tends to win on big days -- like J Ortiz riding for him.


WIN BET: 7 Sy Dog Motion has this one three for three no sense contesting him

NO CHALK: 6 Portfolio Company --Again-- Chad had a quiet winter-- expecting a breakout for his horses.


WIN BET: 3 Jackie's Warrior if not pressed can steal this race on front end

NO CHALK: 1 Aloha West is the BC Sprint Champion


WIN BET: 4 Tribhuvan (FR)  Chad will try to steal on front end

NO CHALK: 8 Adhamo Prat for Brown -- I'll take my chances with this combo on the green


WIN BET 6 Messier he ticks all the boxes and did the dirty work for Taiba in last race

NO CHALK 8 Charge It TAP and Saez at anywhere near 20-1 with a horse that has the breeding and the stride to win =take that all day long!