Yesterday we had six winners from our A and B Selections. Again, we anticipate a decrease in our win percentage because we are trying to limit our selections to two choices and trying to avoid the favorite. Interestingly, the early Pick 5 went 5-5-4-4-5 and returned $1288.00 with only the first race winner returning a double digit payout. The No Chalk Picks did not return a winner yesterday but did have horses that ran well including Boru in the finale at 7-1 who just missed catching the winner at the wire.
The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race. “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value. The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.
| RACE | A HORSES | B HORSES | C HORSES |
| 1 | 3,5 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3,8 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2,7 | 9, 10 | |
| 4 | 8,9 | 6 | |
| 5 | 4,5 | 8,9 | |
| 6 | 4,8 | 1, 5 | |
| 7 | 1,5 | 2,3 | |
| 8 | 2,5 | 3,6 | |
| 9 | 1,7 | 4 | |
| 10 | 3,7 | 6,10 | |
The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout. The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.
The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5
Starting ticket --1,3,4,5 w 1,3,8 w 2,7,9,10 w 8,9 w 4,5,8,9
1,3,4,5 w 1,3,8 w 2,7.9 w 8,9 w 4,5 = $48.00
RACE 1
WIN BET 3 Gun Maestro
4 Moreelli is the horse to beat. The two horses by Gun Runner who has been having an excellent sire year are the 3 and the 5. 3 Gun Maestro is a second time starter adding blinkers while 1 Glen Echo drew the rail and is a first time starter. For this reason, I will take experience and off the rail.
NO CHALK 5 Inevitable Conection
5 Inevitable Conection finished second in the Spa then went to the sideline and should be ready with experience --Carmouche will have this one on the front end.
RACE 2
WIN BET 1 Marvelous Maude
1 Marvelous Maude will have to improve and may go off as the favorite - but 3 Timeless Journey should be the deserving favorite -- Brown has good numbers with Franco at the Big A.
NO CHALK 8 Cara's Dreamer
Since the 3 Timeless Journey will go off as the favorite -- this horse finished ahead of Timeless Journey in most recent -- 8 Cara's Dreamer is a closer and needs pace to run into if she will win.
Exacta Play 3/8 box
RACE 3
WIN BET 7 Yarrow
While the 2 Citizen K and 7 Yarrow finished noses apart -- Clement and KLezcano stick together for this race while J. Ortiz is out of town so Davis rides for DePaz
NO CHALK 9 Dakota Dancer
9 Dakota Dancer will get on preferred surface after running over a sloppy track last time out --at 12-1 ML!
RACE 4
WIN BET 9 Texas Swing
While 8 No Burn will be the favorite, the most likely upset will be 9 Texas Swing for TAP.
NO CHALK 6 French Toast
The horse ships in from KY and that angle works at the start of the Saratoga meet -- let's see if it works and at 12-1 on ML worth a swing.
RACE 5
WIN BET 4 Evvie Jets
4 Evvie Jets finished ahead of Golden Plume -9/5 on ML and Windfall Profit last time out.
NO CHALK 5 Belle Belisa (IRE)
Michael " Mad Scientist" Dickinson shipped in to win at 8-1 last week over the even money favorite -- let's see a repeat at 6-1 on ML.
RACE 6
WIN BET 4 Send For Me
4 Send For Me is a half million dollar baby and makes a lot of sense but will have to deal with 5 Favor - the ML favorite -to the outside
NO CHALK 8 Marysvale
8 Marysvale is a second time starter for Mott -- Mott and Alvarado have been quiet this meet- but always shoud be respected and the 6-1 ML will probably only go up with the presence of the 1,4, and 5.
RACE 7
WIN BET 1 General Ken
1 General Ken has won on the lead and then coming from off the pace -- undefeated and Chad and Manny do well together and I think they are better than 2 Geno and 3 Sy Dog but both will merit inclusion in horizontals.
NO CHALK 5 Gran Sonata
5 Gran Sonata has Lezcano in the saddle who will have to deal with other speed in the race -- like to steady work tab
RACE 8
WIN BET 2 Bourbonic
While 3 Speaker's corner and 5 Miles D will be favored, TAP sends out 2 that can close or sit off what could be a fast pace and get first run before 6 Miles D. Carmouche will have Bourbonic in position to make a run down the lane.
NO CHALK 5 Vindictive
5 Vindictive TAP and Saez at a potential double digit payout worth a shot!
RACE 9
WIN BET 7 Mutamakina (GB)
Clement sends out 3 horses and this one has best chance for the win -- like that Davis stays on.
NO CHALK 1 Summer In Saratoga
1 Summer In Saratoga is a last out winner in Keeneland and should sit a good trip.
RACE 10
WIN BET 3 Arrest Me Red
Winner of last two races
NO CHALK 10 Grateful Bred
Speed of the Speed!
Aqueduct Results and Win Percentage:
45 winners out of 77 races = 58 %
PARX Wednesday Only
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