Aqueduct Selections for November 26th, 2021 - Principal Handicapping

Last Sunday was not one of those days full of winners but we had enough to keep us in the action. Races 1 and 6 will be off turf, so some of the insight may reflect turf racing but the picks reflect off turf for those races. Remember the Ortiz brothers are out west this weekend along with Chad Brown's first team. Also, we will begin to switch our picks away from the Big A and look to Gulfstream in a week or so. Below are the Aqueduct Selections for November 26th, 2021

The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race. “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value. The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.

RACE	A HORSES	B HORSES	C HORSES
1	11	4,10	3
2	5, 6	11
3	4,7	5,8
4	4,5	6
5	7,8	2,4
6	5,15,16	9
7	6,8	3,5,7	1
8	6,8	3
9	4,5,6	3
10	1,7	4,5,6

The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout. The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.

The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5

4,10,11 w 5,6 11 w 4,5,7,8 w 4 w 2,4,7,8 = $72.00

or cheaper ticket

4,10,11 w 5,6,11 w 7 w 4,6 w 2,4,7,8 = $ 36.00

spread in the other two races or play it for more than 50 cents!

RACE 1

WIN Bet -- 11 Ember

9 Bail Out seems like the most likely but will not offer value while Clement's second time starter 11 Ember has right to improve and Bail Out does not seem to want his photo taken

No Chalk-- 4 Sutton Valley

4 Sutton Valley ships in from MD is 10-1 on morning line moving MSW to MCL dirt to turf with Scat Daddy in bloodlines, adds blinkers, and JJ sees fit to ride!

RACE 2

WIN Bet -- 6 Western Advantage

Rudy Rod's 5 Profusion seems to be the most consistent horse in the race, but I think Weaver's 6 Western Advantage adds blinkers, moves turf to dirt, and picks up new jockey -- a bug -- should be flying down the lane!

No Chalk: -- 11 Actuary (GB)

A Euro horse on dirt may not add up but Atras is better on dirt than turf and making that move along with placing Kenrick in the saddle are strong trainer moves.

RACE 3

WIN Bet -- 4 Flannigan's Cove

7 Mezcal is the horse to beat, so let's go with Shug's 4 Flannigan's Cove who is a last out winner and may sneak off at a price with the presence of Brown and Pletcher horses in the field

No Chalk -- 8 Maoilin

This Euro has only run on dirt here and now gets Johnny V in the saddle with speed in a race potentially devoid of pace -- ML 10-1!

RACE 4

WIN Bet -- 4 Flower Point

4 Flower Point is the deserving fav not much else to say.

No Chalk --5 Sailintothewind

Brittany Russell ships in from MD where she wins at in the high 30 percent not for the meet but for the year -- you'll get a price on 5 Sailintothewind as this one moves sprint to route and tries to steal it on the front end -- will have to deal with 6 Platinum Paynter to her outside.

Russell's training stats:

Sprint/Route(36 .31 $3.81)
31-60Days(131 .29 $1.92)
Turf(114 .20 $2.69)
Routes(164 .26 $2.21)
Stakes(62 .27 $1.34)

RACE 5

WIN Bet -- 7 Our Man Mike

best chance of the top choices

No Chalk -- 8 Big Castle and 4 One Whirlwind Ride

Like the combo of Carmouche and Levine at a price on the 8 Big Castle and think 4 One Whirlwind Ride can bea player if you draw a line through last race.

RACE 6

WIN Bet -- outside MTO's

5 Tough Street will be the chalk while 6 Noli Tempere will also vie for favoritism. I expect Chad to be in Southern California for the Del Mar Turf Festival this weekend - however, if he is in NY, I think you can double-down on this horse,

No Chalk -- 9 Coolcatsnkittens

Clement with a firster on the turf, add in Dylan Davis, and make it a sprint -- hope to get the ML 6-1! Patricia Generazio as the owner breeder with Clement used to be an automatic play -- I have to research Clement's success with West Point.

RACE 7

WIN Bet --9 Rudy Rod

9 Rudy Rod is first off the claim for Rob Atras and is also moving turf to dirt another good angle for said trainer

No Chalk -- 6 Air Show

6 Air Show can recapture his late spring early summer form he is a win contender at 12-1

RACE 8

WIN Bet -- 8 Monition

8 Monition trained by Cherie Deveaux appears to be Saez choice in this race -- horse is 2/2 and we will take 9/2 over thee 4/5 Never Surprised.

No Chalk -- 3 Original

3 Original has JJ in the irons and is the only horse with a win over the Big A turf beside the favorite 6 Never Surprised.

RACE 9

WIN Bet -- 4 Crazy Beautiful