Aqueduct Selections for November 14th, 2021

Aqueduct Selections for November 14th, 2021

Keeping a 60 percent win rate since we had 6 winners in 10 races, but still have not hit the early Pick Five with one of our Skinny Tickets.  However, horizontal players need to be ready for extended periods without a Pick 5 winner - let's hope we can one before we go into week 2 at Aqueduct. Below are the Aqueduct Selections for November 14th, 2021.

A couple of huge win payouts yesterday, but the feature race provided a horse that should have been played at 46-1.

Mandate wins at 44-1
Shipper Mandate wins at 44-1

A closer look reveals the horse was shipping in off a win (Last Out Winner Ignored Angle), but even closer inspection reveals trainer Robert Johnston is 29% with last out winners and 42% when teamed up with Wolfsont -- this race was a perfect time to play the long shot -- certainly many of us expected some of the NYRA horses to run better, but value is value -- while I did not play- I cetainly made worse bets with less value -- congrats for those of you playing 12 Mandate yesterday!

The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race.  “A” horses are most likely while (B) and (C) horses are not as likely, they may offer more value.  The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.


1 4,7 3
2 7 2,8 4
3 6.7 2,3
4 7,8 2
5 3 1,2
6 2 7 3,4,5,6
7 1 3,9
8 6,7 11 2,3,5,8
9 11 4,8


The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout.  The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.


The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5

3,7 W 4,7,8 W 4,7 W3,5,8 W 1,3 = $36.00


Based on weak past performances -the following two horses seem to be the best in this race, but I would not trust them at a short price: 4 Amazing Dream and 7 Next Tuesday to start the Sunday card.


Horatio DePaz 's 2 V Pattern adds J Ortiz and they area good combo- just need a cleaner break that last time while the Asmussen trained 7 Majestic Tiger needs to transfer form from turf to dirt 21% move for said trainer and 8 Bail Out The Bank makes debut run for trainer Linda Rice --not known for firsters -- but not much to fear from other entries and horse is drawn to the outside.


2 Experienced is on the improve; 3 Shady McGee finished just behind ; 6 Gloustershire and 7 Abaan for TAP -I suspect the former to be closing while the latter sets the pace -- speed horses over turf that get to the rail have been doing well since the start of the meet. Maker's 4 Jarreau is an include on both horizontal and vertical exotics.


Trainer Michelle Nevin's 3 Buckortwo ran 2-3 with Bond's 5 Sandrone --they could repeat that effort and land 1-2.   While 12 Hezastonecoldfox just has to get back to his debut and that will be a winning effort at 8-1 ML for Bruce Brown and Dylan Davis.  Abreu's 6 Winetastic is 15-1 ML and Franco  sees fit to ride and while Donk has not won in a while that could change with 9 My Friend Duke with J. Ortiz in the saddle.


3 Violent Trick - 2 Subiaco -  1 Indiana Bella and 1A Foxtail -- why not two for one?  Keep an eye on 8 Double Doink the Parx shipper who has not raced since the first day of summer but had won 3/4 before going to the bench,


If no one runs with the 2 Swinton it is all over since 2 Swinton  led for most of the race. caught at wire and claimed -After that it will be a bunch of horses closing and fighting each other to pick up the pieces or trying to pass a tiring Swinton.  I prefer the longer prices 5 Got the Gold - 6 Brew Pub cutting back in distance.


9 War Terminator seems to be the best horse in the field and should have pass to cut into down the stretch since 1 Thunderbird Cafe will try to break to the lead and the first time gelding has Carmouche who will get him out of the gate to the lead on the rail.  a continued improving effort can win this for him. Finally, Clement's 3 Uncle George is dropping down in class and CC is always dangerous in turf sprints plus JJ seems to have shaken off the Saratoga meet.


11 Runaway Rumor seems to be going in the right direction -- 9 Out of Sorts for Britanny Russell who is tearing up Laurel Park, but Play Brown 2 Bleeker Street with Clement 3 Plum Ali and the two Motion horses 5 Batyah and 8 Bipartisanship (GB) in a superfecta especially with Brown at 15-1 ML and Motion at 15-1 and 30-1 on ML.

Special 6 White Frost with 7 Mrs. Dracarys -- the two horses with wins on the Big A Turf.


11 Rainbow Gal the Noda Brothers own and train this horse; 8 Backchannel been facing tougher;  4 Dom's Party Girl is a last out winner

Aqueduct Results and Win Percentage:

17 winners out of 28 races = 60%

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