Yesterday we had 8 of 10 winners on either A / B horse selections and 5 horses on our win bets. the Skinny Pick 5 Ticket went 4 out of 5. One problem that came about in three races was the ML favorite which I thought would win but not offer value actually was not the post time favorite so I either picked as win bet or bet against based on value. For example, I wrote 4 Morelli in race 1 was morning line favorite. I wrote he was deserving but decided to chase value then 4 Morelli sneaks off at 7-2. In Race 2, 3 Timeless Journey should have been the favorite, so I picked against based on value. 3 Timeless Journey wins at 5-1 --value! Again, in Race 6, 4 Send For Me which should have been morning live favorite pays 14.40. My two win bets in race 5 4 Evvie Jets and race 6 4 Send For Me paid $33.50 and the Pick 3 with my win bet in race 4 9 Texas Swing returned 126.50 with my win bets 9-4-4.
Yesterday Win bet payouts
Race 4 -- 9 Texas Swing paid $6.20
Race 5 -- 4 Evvie Jets paid $9.20
Race 6 -- 4 Send for Me paid $14.40
Race 9 -- 7 Mutamakina (GB) paid $6.60
Race 10 -- 3 Arrest Me Red paid $6.80
Sunday picks will not offer a table but just win bets and no chalk plays.
The Skinny Ticket is the name for a low priced pick 5 ticket that allows for a big payout. The ticket usually relies on a single selection in the sequence and usually ranges from $18.00 to $75.00 in price. More information on The Skinny Ticket definition and how to play.
The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5
two options today
3,5,7,8 w 2,3,8,9 w 3 w 3,4 w 6,8,11 = $48.00
1,3,5 w 2,3 w 3 w 3,4 w 6,8,9,11,12 = $30.00
RACE 1
WIN BET-- 7 My Brother Kam
3 Paratus will be post time favorite but Junior and Mott are o for the meet -- cannot accept as favorite -- Maker's City At Night has Saez and speed so will avoid trouble and try to steal on front end -- However, Michael "The Mad Scientist " Dickinson ships in 7 My Brother Kam and lures Lezcano.
NO CHALK -- 8 Good Medicine
TAP and JJ 12-1 on the morning line -- I'll swing for the fence -- I also think 1 Imminent Storm may finally get preferred surface and 8-1 ML.
3,6,7,8 B 1,5
RACE 2
WIN BET 8 Two Cent Tootsie
While the 2 More Good Times and 3 Kissing Frogs will be everyone's play -- they offer no value -- 4 Stella Mars is a last out winner and I am a big fam of Jalon Samuel, but I like Carmouche on the 8 Two Cent Tootsie because he will avoid traffic issues and have a chance at the top of the lane.
NO CHALK 9 Lady Fatima
Dylan Davis back on to Lady Fatima offers better value than either the 2 More Good Times or 3 Kissing Frogs.
Spread race 2,3, 4, 8,9,10
RACE 3
WIN BET 3 Bustin Bay
Back to dirt and Irad sees fit to ride -- change to Lezcano.
NO CHALK 8 Flashing Red
Potts with a gamut of changes
3
RACE 4
WIN BET Emperor's Cause
1 Water;s Edge needs to get back to prior races -- like Saez on this horse who finished second last out-- 6 Full moon Fever can win if gets back to last year Big A form -- do not like lay-off horses.
NO CHALK 3 Bustin The Rules
Cancel rides for underrated trainer Charlton Baker -- he ships in with live mounts to the NYRA circuit -- hope to get 8-1.
3,4
RACE 5
WIN BET 11 Mr. Connecticut
Clement with JJ are 43% at the Big A meet -- see the percentage going to 50 %.
NO CHALK 8 Bless Bless
Nevin trainee wanted turf and just missed last out -- expect improvement today.
6,8,11 -- 9 if you can afford to spread.
RACE 6
WIN BET 8 First Constitution
TAP and Saez!
NO CHALK 9 Amatteroftime
Like the even balance running pattern now stretching out.
8
RACE 7
WIN BET 3 Too Sexy
Clement is tough in turf sprints
NO CHALK 2 Love and Thunder (IRE)
Chad and let's see who gets the mount.
1,2,3
RACE 8
WIN BET 6 Sir Alfred James
May just be best horse in field!
NO CHALK 4 Hopeful Treasure and 8 War Tocsin
Both at a price 4 Hopeful Treasure will rate the 8 War Tocsin will close with lots of speed signed on, but someone needs to put pressure on 1 Chateau or he can steal on front end.
RACE 9
WIN BET 9 Mischievous Kiss
Short price but horse to beat
NO CHALK Anador (FR)
Davis and Clement makes sense
7,9,10
RACE 10
WIN BET 8 Freedom of the Press
Rice with a deserving favorite
NO CHALK 6 Genetic
First time starter gets lasix out of Declaration of War with good AM works
Aqueduct Results and Win Percentage:
47 winners out of 77 races = 61 %
PARX Wednesday Only
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