Trying to provide winners with value without offering 3 or 4 horses in each race, I decided to offer a "Win Bet" and a "No Chalk" Bet for each race. In other words, I provide only 2 horses for each race as potential win bets unlike many others who provide 3 and 4 horses per race.
Results on Weekend Races:
Saturday Win Bet / No Chalk Payouts
Race 4 -- 9 Texas Swing paid $6.20
Race 5 -- 4 Evvie Jets paid $9.20
Race 6 -- 4 Send for Me paid $14.40
Race 9 -- 7 Mutamakina (GB) paid $6.60
Race 10 -- 3 Arrest Me Red paid $6.80
Sunday Win Bet / No Chalk Payouts
Race 2 -- 2 Cent Tootsie paid $13.00
Race 3 -- 3 Bustin Bay paid $3.60
Race 8 -- 4 Hopeful Treasure paid $38.00
Race 10 -- Freedomofthepress paid $5.20
Total 9 winners in 20 races over 2 days. If you placed a bet on each of the 2 choices, it would have cost 80.00 and returned 104.00. If you only bet the "win bet" it would have cost $40.00 over 2 days $65.00.
The Value We Cannot Control
Again, these picks purposefully try to predict and pick against the post time favorite. There have been races such as Saturday's second race when Clement's 3 Timeless Journey was Morning Line Favorite, so I picked against her in my published picks and expected her to be post time favorite -- when they made Chand Brown's 1 Marvelous Maude the favorite and Timeless Journey drifted to 5-1, she was the play in that race.
Do I pick the Favorite?
In some cases, the favorite is that good in relation to the field, but I try to avoid it. 3 Bustin Bay on Sunday's card was a horse that I could not make a case against or a case for another horse. Certainly, I do not like to eat chalk, but "Cashing is better than tearing." Additionally, logical horses -- aka favorites - are difficult to dismiss in horizontal wagers, but I am offering both value on win bets and insight into horizontal wagers. Yet, the objective is to find an bet those long shots that I label " No Chalk" Bets like Hopeful Treasure on Sunday's Race 8 at Aqueduct at 18-1.
Overall Win Percentage
All of my A and B Horse selections are reflected in my overall win percentage. However, keep in mind, the selections are limited because the goal is to create The Skinny Ticket.
