Update on New Format for Aqueduct Selections

Trying to provide winners with value without offering 3 or 4 horses in each race, I decided to offer a "Win Bet" and a "No Chalk" Bet for each race.  In other words, I provide only 2 horses for each race as potential win bets unlike many others who provide 3 and 4 horses per race.

Results on Weekend Races:

Saturday Win Bet / No Chalk Payouts

Race 4 -- 9 Texas Swing paid $6.20

Race 5 -- 4 Evvie Jets paid $9.20

Race 6 -- 4 Send for Me paid $14.40

Race 9 -- 7 Mutamakina (GB) paid $6.60

Race 10 -- 3 Arrest Me Red paid $6.80

Sunday Win Bet / No Chalk Payouts

Race 2 -- 2 Cent Tootsie paid $13.00

Race 3 -- 3 Bustin Bay paid $3.60

Race 8 -- 4 Hopeful Treasure paid $38.00

Race 10 -- Freedomofthepress  paid $5.20

Total 9 winners in 20 races over 2 days.  If you placed a bet on each of the 2 choices, it would have cost 80.00 and returned 104.00.  If you only bet the "win bet" it would have cost $40.00 over 2 days $65.00.

A win Bet that beat the favorite on Saturday 11/27/2021 at Aqueduct








The Value We Cannot Control

Again, these picks purposefully try to predict and pick against the post time favorite.  There have been races such as Saturday's second race when Clement's  3 Timeless Journey was Morning Line Favorite, so I picked against her in my published picks and expected her to be post time favorite -- when they made Chand Brown's 1 Marvelous Maude the favorite and Timeless Journey drifted to 5-1, she was the play in that race.

Morning Line Favorite Timeless journey drifts to 5-1 at Post time equaling an excellent value play,


Do I pick the Favorite?

In some cases, the favorite is that good in relation to the field, but I try to avoid it. 3 Bustin Bay on Sunday's card was a horse that I could not make a case against or a case for another horse. Certainly, I do not like to eat chalk, but "Cashing is better than tearing."  Additionally, logical horses -- aka favorites - are difficult to dismiss in horizontal wagers, but I am offering both value on win bets and insight into horizontal wagers. Yet, the objective is to find an bet those long shots that I label " No Chalk" Bets like Hopeful Treasure on Sunday's Race 8 at Aqueduct at 18-1.


Overall Win Percentage

All of my A and B Horse selections are reflected in my overall win percentage.  However, keep in mind, the selections are limited because the goal is to create The Skinny Ticket.