Rainy Day Race Days
With Tropical Storm Elsa about to dump 3 inches of rain tonight and tomorrow in the Mid Atlantic region, it is a good time to think about racing in the rain, mud, and slop.
While many people choose to skip a rainy day at the race track, I think rainy track days offer valuable opportunities to play for a few reasons.
- There will be fewer entries which means mathematically you have a better chance of picking a winner when there are fewer runners in a single race or fewer runners in multi-race wagers.
- Use of Tomlinson ratings, past performances, and breeding can help narrow down a small field to even fewer potential winners.
Tomlinson ratings provide information on a horse's breeding and performance on a wet track, turf, and / or distance.
Past performances will show a bettor how a horse has performed on a wet track and the speed of the horse in the race over the wet track.
While not always accurate, usually horses whose sire and dam have performed well on a wet track also perform well. Some notable off track sires Munnings , Speightstown, and Uncle Mo are a few sires to look for on a rainy day.
- For Turf races moved to dirt, the race could include MTO entries (Main Track Only) that were entered in race if it were moved off the turf. With MTO’s, they are not certain to win, but at least the bettor knows the owner/ trainers intention. Yet, I never understood the reasoning behind a MTO scratching out of race moved from the Turf to the Main track.
- Speed and pace figures are helpful because most horses do not like kickback in their face while running behind other horses, so sometimes early speed wins because the horse does not have to deal with the muddy kickback and can choose the best path to run. At some tracks, the rail is best when it rains while other tracks it is better to run in the middle of the track because of how the track drains. If you follow a certain race track, you can learn the best route for the horse on rainy days.
- The unpredictable nature of a wet track can throw all of the above out the window and allow a long shot who had some or no reason to run well in the mud to do so. However, there is usually a reason for it to occur, while sometimes hidden from plain view, a deeper dive into speed, breeding, or past performances may offer a hint others miss.
So while fewer entries on a rainy day may lead to shorter prices, the ability to find winners and hopefully beat short priced favorites can make it a profitable day especially in multi- race wagers.
After all, any day at the track is better than a day at work
The Principal
