Pro’s and Con’s for Every Derby Entrant

Kentucky Derby

Let's get pace out of the way -- they will go faster than the pundits predict.  These are three year old's running farther than they have while facing the most competition they have, and in front of a revved up crowd of over 100k.  They will run fast, just not Songandaprayer fast 22.45 and 44.86!

Key will be if 17 Derma Sokogate can rate and not get into speed duel like Crowd Prince did last year.  I think jockey learned his lesson.  Then, will 17 Derma Sokogate be unaffected from the trip from the UAE and have enough to hold off the late flyers.  3 Two Phil's will make first run, then Forte, followed by Tapit Trice, Skinner and Angel of Empire.  That's the way I see it playing out; however, I will be rooting for 4 Confidence Game since I have a future wager from February at 30-1. Of course, I'll probably get better odds on Saturday.


Below are quick points on each horse.


Number  HORSE               Pro's                                                        Con's                                                     
1 Hit Show Not going for early lead Bad post - does not seem to be concern
2 Verifying T Gaff in saddle not fast enough
3 Two Phils may be special horse may be bet down
4 Confidence Game impressive works 10 week layoff
5 Tapit Trice Closing speed may lose sight of the leaders
6 Kingsbarns undefeated no race at 2 and no comp
7 Reincarnate Johnny V and early speed may still be too slow
8 Mage could win with a good trip consistently finds trouble
9 Skinner Best late pace will not offer value
10 Practical Move Consistently fastest horse slow starts
11 Disarm uncommon bullet work for As-man not impressive in Lex


Number  HORSE               Pro's                                                        Con's                                                     
12 Jaces Road wants the lead may not be fast enough to get lead
13 Sun Thunder in the KY Derby in the KY Derby
14 Angel of Empire continues to improve can't afford to fall too far back
15 Forte deserving favorite not really improving
16 Raise Cain Better at 1 turn races Derby is 2 turn race
17 Derma Sokogate Versatile shipping from UAE
18 Rocket Can breeding and Mott needs to make a big forward move
19 Lord Miles Won Wood at 59-1 This is not the Wood
20 Continuar trainer has won in US on big race day seems to be regressing