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The Kentucky derby is a lot like the NFL draft in that we have seen these contestants at different levels and different venues, but now they are competing with the best of their age. There will be favorites like the top picks in the NFL draft that somehow do not pan out, (Think Tony Mandarich) an there will be others that outrun their odds (Think Seth Joyner or Tom Brady). while there will be others that the media falls in love with telling their stories for clicks and views (There are too many of them to name). The most current story will be on render Judgement the Toby Keith horse. However, like shader Sanders there will be a lot of hype and a draft let down both Sanders and Render Judgement will have their time to provide their evidence to prove if they belong. It makes for much see TV and lots of talk. In the end, Horse racing is different than the draft because it's all about one day two minutes. It's about the best positioning and right race flow because they are doing something they have never done previously and will never face 19 other competitors. For bettors, it really would be a race to skip, but with so many non-horse racing people betting, it inflates the odds. Here is where I have landed early in this week. Again, subscribe to get my full report on the stakes races on both Oaks and Derby Days as well as my picks for the Derby.
Early choice play in the Kentucky Derby is no suprise 8 Journalism. The horse has done everything right, but will have to navigate the 20 horse field and will not be up front. However with much speed to the inside past will set up for closers. That being said, 7 Luxor Cafe is my price play ( I have a future wager on him at 30-1. The horse reminds me of last year's Derby entrant from Japan Forever Young (Lost by length of two noses and was closing best), and the Japanese horses are bound to breakthrough with a victory soon. The horse has a quick turn of foot and will be making a run in the stretch. However, it is difficult to judge early pace without having the speed / pace figures available.
