Belmont Selections September 26th, 2021

A Great Day - 9 winners out of 10 races including the Early Pick 5 for 40 dollars returning 411 dollars.  The 11th race was switched off the turf, and I did not adjust picks. Also, predicted 5 wins for Irad on the day and he won 4 -- JJ Castellano had a day.  The jockey colony returns from PARX to Belmont today.

Winner's Circle at PARX was place to be yesterday!

Winner's Circle the morning of 2021 Pennsylvania Derby Day


The below chart shows the horse’s likelihood of winning a race.  “A” horses are most likely while (B) and © horses are not as likely, they may offer more value.  The formation of the (A), (B) and (C) horses is derived from speed of horse, pace potential of race, training patterns, and track conditions.


1 1
2 13 2
3 1,6,7 4
4 1.2.3
5 12,8,9 4,7
6 13 1,2
7 2,3 5
8 7,8 11
9 4 1
10 7,9 6

The Skinny Ticket Early Pick 5

1,3 W2,13 W 1,4,6,7 W 1,2,3 W4,6,8,9, 12= $ 120.00

Race 1:

1 Shalimar Gardens looks much the best in this race DePaz with Jose Ortiz.

Race 2:

7 Noble Journey is a major player in here while 2 Viking Zim exits key race but 3 Shutters deserves another look.  Chad had a slow start at the Spa and seems to be having slow start at Belmont meet, but expect better for 3 Shutters this time.  8 Ghostmom for Rudy Rod and Saez -- had a big score on the turf together on Friday -- Saez always tries hard to win.  Repeat angle 2 Viking Zim and 4 Arrowheart finished 2-3 last out -- play in repeat angle for exacta.

13 Sandro The Great if draws in off also eligible list.

Race 3:

4 Uncle Mo's Cat returns in 7 days and drops from MSW to Maiden;  6 Partner's Hope  and 1 Rogers Ginger reunite after running 2-3 last out.  6 Partner's Hope has the edge missing the win by a nose -- JJ sticks. 7 Voter Protection for chad Brown may offer value in this race.

Race 4

2 Surprise Boss for up and coming trainer Juan Vasquez -- 219.00 winner yesterday at PARX in a stakes race!

Juan Vasquez winner at 104-1

2 Surprise Boss has two losses to Maker's stakes winner Run Curtis Run.  1 Shipsational has Saez and encountered trouble last out and 3 Senbei has speed and has never trailed at any call in two race career.

Race 5

7 furlongs on the turf is an odd distance since many turf sprints are shorter, it requires a blend of speed and stamina.  Horse who have won at  furlongs on turf with wins over Belmont turf make the list.  8 Kinky Sox fits the criteria as does the 9 Silky Blue, along with 12 Kreesie also is a player in here; add in the two last out winners that appear to be in their best form 4 Itsakeyper and 6 Jill's Hot Mess winner of two in a row both will need to get another furlong and a half to win.

Race 6

Also eligible 13 Let Her Inspire U and 16 Twist Just Right will be contenders if either draw into the race,  1 Silver First and 2 Pimenova will break to the lead and try like heck to hold on -- advantage goes to 2 Pimenova with Saez in saddle but Silver First brings Ferrin Peterson to ride.

Race 7

2 Prefect is horse to beat while  3 Countdown will make a better showing today.  5 Made My Day (IRE) should be better this time out -- maybe JR in the saddle is e=what is needed,

Race 8

7 My lips Are Sealed for trainer Weaver; 8 Marvelous Maude is getting better for Chad; 11 Unicorn Sally at a price with Saez returning for last out winner.

Race 9

Gallant Bloom offers 1 Bella Sofia takes on elders for first time -- has dome nothing wrong byt 4 Lake Avenue for Mott is rounding into fine form and has experience edge.

Race 10:

7 Athena Dancer and 9 Theodora Grace offer best chance to win, but 6 Lucky Latkes goes out for DePaz and his horses have been live.